Post-Iowa wrap-up and predictions

[valarltd]

1)I totally called it for Huckabee.
As I see it, none of the others has a chance with middle America.

Guiliani is too ethnic. "Rudy" is an urban name. You don't get that in suburbia or the sticks. Rudy is the flashy dressing Cosby kid (or the adorable little girl) And the sheer Italian-ness of Guiliani is a killer. He's also from New York City, which makes him immediately suspect.

Mitt Romney. He's from Massachussetts. This means he's not only a crazy polygamist cultist but queer, in the thinking of the average cuttle-fish. "Massachussetts Liberal" is a cultural meme that's still around.

Ron Paul, despite the dedication of the Paulites, is an absolute whack-job. Sane people know we live in a society and everyone's choices affect everyone else. "Rugged Individualism" is for single males who have no dependents and can pretend they are Jeremiah Johnson.

Huckabee is Middle America. He has an ordinary name. He's against all the stuff the ordinary person is, for all the stuff they're for. He believes in their social issues, but he's not against government programs that improve the lives of millions of people. The fact that he's the Taliban on the other side of the Abrahamic blanket is a feature for most people, not a bug. His opposition is going to come from the money branch of the party, and this has already started. (my icon seems very appropriate)

2) The Dems are harder to handicap.

Obama has one big problem. He's black. This will hurt him more than most liberal people think.

Clinton has four big problems. Bill. She's a woman. She's Business as Usual Inside the Beltway. And the Democratic side severely underestimated exactly how much people hate her for those three.

Edwards is still associated with the disasterous Kerry campaign. And in both his and Clinton's cases, the opposition is deliberately calling them gender nonconformist, with the dog-whistle implications that they are fair targets.

Comments

[cbpotts.livejournal.com]

The fact that he's the Taliban on the other side of the Abrahamic blanket is a feature for most people, not a bug.

(Ok, I'm confused: does this mean he's really a conservative fruitcake in disguise and people really like that?)

[valarltd.livejournal.com]

OK, Isaac (Jewish) and Ishmael (Islamic) are the two sides of the Abrahamic Blanket. Christians are adopted on Isaac's side.

C, honey, he's not at all in disguise.

He is a Christo-fascist. And yes, there is a significant voting block that's been actively working for this sort of candidate since the days of the Southern Strategy, when the GOP opened its doors to the religious nutballs.

[cbpotts.livejournal.com]

You see, I think on the coast we're isolated from this a bit. I grew up in the church, and never heard of the Abrahamic Blanket -- It makes me wonder how things I thought we so universal can be so different (I realize that is a horrid sentence)

You see, the Huckabee we're seeing here is "Yeah, I'm Christian, but I'm not one of those Crazy People, and you can't vote for Romney, cuz he's a Mormon and that's just a cult" Not so much what he actually believes, compared to what he's not, if that makes sense.

[valarltd.livejournal.com]

OK, that's my own coinage as of 5 AM.
Isaac is on the right side of the blanket (legitimate). Ishmael was "born on the wrong side of the blanket" as the saying goes.

Huckabee is Crazy People.
This man ran his wife for secretary of state while he was still in office as governor.

[sidewinder.livejournal.com]

*nods at every point you just raised*

I was, desperately, truly, holding out hope that Guiliani had a chance (and yes I know he has his own issues and no one is perfect but overall he was really the closest to my personal positions overall as a socially liberal republican.)

Someone warned me to watch out for Huckabee months ago, before anyone saw him as more than a blip in the race. And I'm just so fearful no matter what of this election as I see no probably end result I'm happy with at this stage of the race.

[amberleewriter.livejournal.com]

Yeah. I don't comment much on politics, particularly here on LJ, but I've just never understood how Hillary could think she has a real chance at being elected. She won't get the "woman vote" here in the "midwest" because they have no respect for her here. The Republicans hate her on principal and the Dems think she has no spine. That whole last name issue might seem like a help to her but it's not around here. She'd have done better if she'd divorced the man. Worst of all, every woman I talk to in Indiana makes disparaging comments about her sexuality as the first thing they say about her. The men too. I hate the "D" word used in that manner and get rather nasty when people bring it up -- thus my "I'm not talking about politics until this is over" thing. (I just get sick of having to jump on people for using the "D" word the same I do the "N" word and it gets old.)

An average conversation (Dem or Repub) goes like this:

"That Hillary is a total "b" "d" bitch. I'd vote for the "n" before I'd vote for her!"

And this out of some of the most bigoted people I've ever met.

*shudder*

How her staff can't know this is beyond me. I live in fear of four more Republican years but I don't see how the Dems can manage with the choices they have going. *sigh*

[kadath.livejournal.com]

If Huckabee wins in November, the start date of Operation Canada is moving up.

[nbrooks.livejournal.com]

Never underestimate the power of the Chuck Norris (and Oprah for Obama) endorsement from idiot midwesterners - the people who don't have a side picked out, and can and will sway at whatever shiny thing gets their attention.

It's always been my opinion that's how Schwartzenegger got elected. "Hey, this guy will be entertaining. Who cares if he knows what he's doing or not?"

It's the same thing that got the current mayor of Toledo elected. He's an arrogant prick and a joke. He throws tantrums. He gets in fist fights. And people enjoy seeing his latest escapades on TV, as opposed to the quiet leadership of an actual, competent mayor. So he keeps getting voted in, he's on his third term now.

[ellabel.livejournal.com]

I wish I could pick one of the Republicans I like, but they've all got problems, to me. =/ I agree with most of their stuff, but... egh. I guess it's too much to ask for someone "in power" to be pro-life, but gay-friendly, and not cheat on his wife & crap like that. Also, to believe in evolution. And probably not start a war with everybody in existance. damnation.

Huckabee scares me. I think I mostly like Romney best, but he seems to contradict himself a lot.

aaanyway. I don't really have anybody to talk to on this subject, so I'm blathering in your comments. sorry 'bout that.