Random political economic thoughts
Apr. 29th, 2006 01:47 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
valarltdSome glum thoughts for a rainy Saturday.
1) Maybe the Democrats gettng back in power in 2006/8 is a set-up. Think about it. The economy is really going to start hurting in 3-9 months (see point 2) The party in power gets all the blame/credit. Maybe the Republicans are planning on cutting and running and leaving the Dems holding the bag, in order to sweep in in 2010/2 elections and stay in for another 50 years?
2) The economy is hurting. Do not look for things to get better. The fuel prices will really affect the price of consumer goods in a few months. Consider: the average family is paying 50% more for fuel than last year. They have not gotten a 50% raise.
Using my family, which is average: a minivan at 22 mpg and a car at 35 mpg. It costs $59 to fill the tank of the minivan, $34 to fill the car. That's $93/week on gasoline alone, as opposed to $66 last year. Almost $1404 more a year is going to gas.
This is $1400 we aren't spending on food. $1400 we aren't spending on clothing or durable goods. $1400 we aren't spending on entertainment or eating out. $1400 we aren't saving this year.
Prices for freight are going up. Fuel surcharges are coming into effect with all the major haulers. Look for the price of everything to go up. Truck lines aren't going to eat the cost of the fuel. Shippers aren't going
to. Merchants aren't going to. The consumer is going to get it again.
So, say food goes up by 15%. We spend about $400/mo on groceries, but we eat cheaply for a family of six. It goes up by 15%, that's 460. Over a year, that's $5520, not $4800, or $720 more.
Add that to the $1400, and we're now over $2000/ year in the hole from where we were last year. That's almost a month's take-home pay for Mudd.
So how does this affect the economy?
Consider the effects across 100,000,000 households (which is a conservative estimate, as there are about 3 million people in the US)
$2000/household not going into savings. $2000/household not going to buy durable goods, or entertainment or anything else but food and gas.
$2,000,000,000,000 or 2 billion dollars not going anywhere but to pay for food and gasoline.
We'll see tourism hurting. We'll see reductions in force across the board. We'll see more plant shut-downs.
I've been training on "Running the system" since my trainer's dedicated run (parts for the GM plant in Delaware) is on hold from a 1 month plant shut down.
3) Outsourcing will continue to hurt American jobs. The only jobs that will be secure and continue to grow are ones that must be done on-site: Teaching. Nursing. Driving. Cashiering. Even teaching isn't secure as some school systems use Distance Learning with televised lessons piped in from other districts.
4) The Religious Right is flexing their muscle. They're demanding more than lip service. They're demanding the GOP "dance with the one that brung 'em" and pass laws to further a theocratic, dominionist agenda. Good "Christian" "family" values: Breeder females, minorities in their places, and gay folk dead or closeted. They're by-God insisting that we all look like the song "Little Boxes" but with no martinis and no irony.
Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night.
Merle Haggard has never seemed more contemporary, even though he was writing 25 years ago.
I wish a buck was still silver, and it was back when the country was strong,
Back before Elvis, and before the Vietnam war came along,
Before the Beatles and yesterday, when a man could still work, and still would,
is the best of the free life behind us now,
and Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
Are we rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell.
With no kind of chance for the flag or the liberty bell.
I wish a Ford or a Chevy, would still last ten years like they should.
Is the best of the free life behind us now,
And Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
I wish Coke was still cola, and a joint was a bad place to be.
It was back before Nixon lied to us all on TV.
Before microwave ovens, when a girl could still cook, and still would,
Is the best of the free life behind us now,
and Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
Stop rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell.
Stand up for the flag, and let's all ring the liberty bell.
Let's make a Ford and a Chevy that'll still last ten years like they should.
The best of the free life is still yet to come,
And the good times ain't really over for good.
Just some thoughts from The Loyal Opposition on a dreary day.
1) Maybe the Democrats gettng back in power in 2006/8 is a set-up. Think about it. The economy is really going to start hurting in 3-9 months (see point 2) The party in power gets all the blame/credit. Maybe the Republicans are planning on cutting and running and leaving the Dems holding the bag, in order to sweep in in 2010/2 elections and stay in for another 50 years?
2) The economy is hurting. Do not look for things to get better. The fuel prices will really affect the price of consumer goods in a few months. Consider: the average family is paying 50% more for fuel than last year. They have not gotten a 50% raise.
Using my family, which is average: a minivan at 22 mpg and a car at 35 mpg. It costs $59 to fill the tank of the minivan, $34 to fill the car. That's $93/week on gasoline alone, as opposed to $66 last year. Almost $1404 more a year is going to gas.
This is $1400 we aren't spending on food. $1400 we aren't spending on clothing or durable goods. $1400 we aren't spending on entertainment or eating out. $1400 we aren't saving this year.
Prices for freight are going up. Fuel surcharges are coming into effect with all the major haulers. Look for the price of everything to go up. Truck lines aren't going to eat the cost of the fuel. Shippers aren't going
to. Merchants aren't going to. The consumer is going to get it again.
So, say food goes up by 15%. We spend about $400/mo on groceries, but we eat cheaply for a family of six. It goes up by 15%, that's 460. Over a year, that's $5520, not $4800, or $720 more.
Add that to the $1400, and we're now over $2000/ year in the hole from where we were last year. That's almost a month's take-home pay for Mudd.
So how does this affect the economy?
Consider the effects across 100,000,000 households (which is a conservative estimate, as there are about 3 million people in the US)
$2000/household not going into savings. $2000/household not going to buy durable goods, or entertainment or anything else but food and gas.
$2,000,000,000,000 or 2 billion dollars not going anywhere but to pay for food and gasoline.
We'll see tourism hurting. We'll see reductions in force across the board. We'll see more plant shut-downs.
I've been training on "Running the system" since my trainer's dedicated run (parts for the GM plant in Delaware) is on hold from a 1 month plant shut down.
3) Outsourcing will continue to hurt American jobs. The only jobs that will be secure and continue to grow are ones that must be done on-site: Teaching. Nursing. Driving. Cashiering. Even teaching isn't secure as some school systems use Distance Learning with televised lessons piped in from other districts.
4) The Religious Right is flexing their muscle. They're demanding more than lip service. They're demanding the GOP "dance with the one that brung 'em" and pass laws to further a theocratic, dominionist agenda. Good "Christian" "family" values: Breeder females, minorities in their places, and gay folk dead or closeted. They're by-God insisting that we all look like the song "Little Boxes" but with no martinis and no irony.
Fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a bumpy night.
Merle Haggard has never seemed more contemporary, even though he was writing 25 years ago.
I wish a buck was still silver, and it was back when the country was strong,
Back before Elvis, and before the Vietnam war came along,
Before the Beatles and yesterday, when a man could still work, and still would,
is the best of the free life behind us now,
and Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
Are we rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell.
With no kind of chance for the flag or the liberty bell.
I wish a Ford or a Chevy, would still last ten years like they should.
Is the best of the free life behind us now,
And Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
I wish Coke was still cola, and a joint was a bad place to be.
It was back before Nixon lied to us all on TV.
Before microwave ovens, when a girl could still cook, and still would,
Is the best of the free life behind us now,
and Are The Good Times Really Over For Good.
Stop rollin' downhill like a snowball headed for hell.
Stand up for the flag, and let's all ring the liberty bell.
Let's make a Ford and a Chevy that'll still last ten years like they should.
The best of the free life is still yet to come,
And the good times ain't really over for good.
Just some thoughts from The Loyal Opposition on a dreary day.
